1 篇文章 • 第 1 頁 (共 1 頁)
Alex Cappa Jersey White , Part 1 Football Outsiders (FBO) recently published some of their results on 2017 wide receiver routes by defense-adjusted value over average (DVOA), which is simply an attempt to value a player on a per-down basis, and is expressed as a percentage above or below average.What FBO has done is take a receiver’s (a few RBs and TEs show up) per-down (DVOA) and total (DYAR - defense-adjusted yards above replacement) value for the twelve most common routes in the NFL: curl, out, dig, slant, drag, go/fly, WR screen, post, comeback, broken play, fade, and seam. In this article we will look at the first six and tackle the last six in Part 2. Because that’s an insane amount of information, FBO only focused on the roughly 20-30 or so receivers that ran these routes the most.From this information, we can see who was good at what route, who was bad, and perhaps even where a team might be using routes they probably shouldn’t as much or routes they could use more. Patterns can also emerge that tell us about the scheme. Because receiver numbers are to a small extent inherently derivative from a quarterback, it also gives us a little bit of a peek into their performance as well. Let’s go down the list:CURLThe curl is a big play in the Buccaneer’s offense. Only one Buc makes the list here though and it’s Mike Evans, who was targeted on the curl route 30 times, the second-most in the NFL. Unfortunately, out of the 21 receivers who caught curls the most, Evans was the third-worst in value. Also, Evans’ 1.2 YAC average was the 3rd worst behind T.Y. Hilton and the ancient Jason Witten. Looking back to 2016, not much has changed. Evans is still the only Buc that shows up, and his YAC and average depth of target is about the same. But, his value on curls was 8th best - it appears his catch percentage fell from 69.2 percent in 2016 to 56.7 percent in 2017. The reason is probably a mix between ball placement and Evans needing to do a better job using his frame to shield defenders from the ball. It’s also important to keep in mind as we go down this list that Evans’ frame prevents him from being as good of a route runner as other players ( and that’s ok). Routes that allow him to use his frame should be his bread and butter.QUICK OUTOf the 26 players who were targeted on quick out routes the most, none were Buccaneers. The Bucs did not have any players on the 2016 list either.DIGThe dig is a staple of Dirk Koetter’s offense. It is a play that often nets a big reward but can lead to quarterbacks taking more hits as it is a long and slow-developing route, usually paired with a seven step drop or a similarly timed but shortened drop from shotgun. Koetter often runs it iso, meaning it is not packaged with another route to form a concept, like Mills, though he sometimes does that too. When run iso it is just the receiver running a deep dig or crossing route by themselves and up to him to get to his spot on time and the quarterback to beat the coverages of the cornerback and safety with his eye manipulation and throw. Because of this, the dig also comes with one of if not the highest rate of interceptions in the league. Big risk, big reward.Again, Evans is the only Tampa Bay player to make the list, with 14 such passes in 2017. Of the 24 players, Evans ranked 14th in value and had a 53.8 percent catch rate. His average depth of target was 12.9, third highest, but his 0.4 YAC average was easily the worst. Clearly Evans struggles to gain separation, which isn’t all that surprising. And the NFL is a contested catch league, after all. But he could also do a much better job being more physical at the catch point which might allow him to break tackles. Because the Bucs like to run their routes deeper than most teams it’s possible safeties are also often in the area, but that also means Evans is just a broken tackle or two from gaining huge yards with no one else between him and the end zone. It’s one of the few remaining holes in his game.In 2016 Evans had the worst dig value out of all listed receivers, with a 43.5 percent catch rate, 12.5 average target depth, and 1.1 YAC. SLANTThe slant is a play with good value and a pretty good completion rate. Evans is again the only Buccaneer to get enough targets to qualify. His value was below average, but his catch rate and target depth were average. A theme is emerging, as Evans’ YAC was 5th fewest out of the 30 players listed, ahead of players like Zach Ertz, Kelvin Benjamin, and Roger Lewis. However, that’s double his YAC average from 2016 and his value got better too.DRAGThe drag is a shorter another short throw for the quarterback that yields a high completion rate, often used in a Mesh concept that uses a rub to get one of the receivers open for YAC. No Buccaneers show up on this list in 2017 or 2016.GO/FLYTwo Bucs show up - Evans and DeSean Jackson, but unfortunately they are second-to-last and fourth-to-last in value, respectively. They had 21 total targets Womens Justin Evans Jersey , third-most behind just Pittsburgh (Antonio Brown and Martavis Bryant) and Detroit (Marvin Jones and Kenny Golladay). A 25 percent catch rate is a low-percentage play, among the lowest in the NFL. Jackson’s catch rate was 11.1 percent and Evans’ was even worse 9.1 percent, which, you don’t need me to tell you is awful. Interestingly, Evans’ target depth was 29.1 but Jackson’s was 38.1, tied with Tyreek Hill and second deepest to just Bryant.Obviously, Jameis Winston’s deep accuracy issues are at play here, as are a myriad of other factors. This is a huge discussion and has been a major point of contention among fans, but we’ll just hit the key points. First, in 2017 Winston actually improved his accuracy over his 2016 season pretty much everywhere, and he was the 11th most efficient deep ball thrower in the NFL last season. This is largely because in today’s game anything past 16 air yards can be considered deep, and secondly Winston earns most of his keep from 10 to 25 yards out as he targets that area more often than almost all quarterbacks. However, his accuracy past 35 yards isn’t good (ranked 15th from 30-34, 25th between 35-39, and 26th 40+). If your definition of a deep ball is different then obviously this ranking will change for you. It’s also worth noting completed passes longer than 50 yards are statistically random and can’t be replicated from year to year. Winston’s deep ball mechanics appear to have suffered his pre-draft work with QB guru George Whitfield and haven’t been the same since. Lastly, it has to be noted that Winston suffered an injury to his throwing shoulder in Week 3 of last season vs. the Minnesota Vikings and did not look healthy until the last few weeks of the season. He has improved in every year; did the injury rob us of seeing some of that improvement in his deep ball, or did it just cover up a problem that’s still there? Or make a bad problem look even worse? We will have to wait until Weeks 4 and 5 of this season to find out. In 2016 Evans’ value was better but still below average, and his catch rate was 20 percent, and Jackson’s value was the fourth-best in the NFL. So the bottom line is this: the Bucs have a quarterback who struggles a great deal to hit deep vertical passes, for whatever reason, but is nonetheless operating in an offense that not only attempts these low-percentage passes at a high rate, but also half the time at an extreme depth. What that says is the team is repeatedly expecting their quarterback to do something he cannot do. Something has to change.In Part 2 we will look at how the Bucs did with WR screens, posts, comebacks, broken plays, fades, and seam routes. The moment of truth came last night for the Bucs and coach Dirk Koetter. With 2:49 to play and facing fourth and 10 from their own 20, would they punt while trailing 30-27, or would they go for it?The critical decision received scant attention during the broadcast, with ESPN’s Jason Witten simply saying, “You’ve gotta punt it here,” and with ESPN’s Joe Tessitore not disagreeing. But did the Bucs have to punt it?They could have gone for it. If they’d converted on fourth and 10, the drive toward a potential game-tying field goal or game-winning touchdown would have continued. If they’d failed, the Steelers would have had the ball in Tampa Bay territory, with the Bucs having a pair of time outs and the two-minute warning to preserve time while also hoping to hold the Steelers to a field goal, giving the Buccaneers one last chance to win the game, trailing 33-27. Obviously, the Buccaneers would have needed to keep the Steelers from getting a first down.Instead, the Bucs opted to give possession back to the Steelers under similar circumstances — needing to keep them from getting a first down. And the effort failed, in part because the Steelers made the gutsy decision to throw on second and long, risking an clock-stopping incompletion or drive-killing interception but delivering the setup for the knockout blow, with a first down that, one play later, became another first down (thanks to a James Conner run), clinching the game by allowing the clock to be drained.If the Buccaneers had gone for it and failed, there’s no guarantee the Steelers would have made an eventual field-goal try. Chris Boswell already had clanged a pair of kicks off the upright; maybe he would have missed another attempt.Of course, the conventional move was to punt, to try to stop the Steelers, and to try to launch another drive with no time outs and less than two minutes to play. The unconventional move was to go for it. But even though coach Dirk Koetter understands the wisdom of taking chances on fourth down, he knows that making the unconventional move and failing could result in the head coach looking for a new job.So, like many other coaches, he’d prefer to go with the conventional approach and fail than the unconventional approach and simply risk failure. Until Koetter quashes that fear, the Buccaneers will never fully live up to their swashbuckling reputation — and perhaps will never migrate as deep into the postseason as they could.